BoE is the Michael Fish of forecasters – now it's calling inflation hurricane wrong again

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Bailey is in a tight spot, as he covers for Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-Budget.

The two are at odds, with Kwarteng embarking on a dash for growth, while Bailey slams his foot on the brakes.

My fear is that the BoE is pressing too hard, with base rates on course to hit six percent next year.

That could trigger a deeper recession than is required to put the lid on inflation.

Bailey is not the only one in danger of overdoing the tightening, the Fed is hiking rates even more aggressively.

It has been pushing through repeated rate rises of 0.75 per cent and quantitative tightening (QT) of a brutal $95billion a month.

The world is now careering towards recession as the strong dollar squeezes everyone. That could put a swifter end to inflation than Bailey or Powell expect.

At least Michael Fish ‘fessed up to his error and as Haldane pointed out, meteorological forecasting improved markedly as a result.

I wish I could be as confident that the Bank of England had also learned the error of its ways.



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