If there is any horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby that can be said to have overcome bad racing luck, it’s Zandon. Time and time again, the son of Upstart has been roughhoused on the track, yet he has performed well enough to comfortably earn a spot among the top Kentucky Derby contenders.
What does that mean for his Derby chances? Let’s take a look at his career race by race, weigh a few other key factors, and then analyze his Kentucky Derby potential.
Maiden Special Weight
October 9th, 2021
Belmont Park
Finish: 1st
Zandon hit the gate at the start of the race, and found himself at the back of the pack. He began to recover and position himself, however, as the field turned for home, he was pinned at the rail in very close quarters with two other rivals, race favorite Matt Doyle and Chanceux. Zandon then angled outward and went five wide, finding himself full of run and full of space to run on. He kicked easily away from Matt Doyle and Sky and Sand, winning by 1 ½ length. For his effort, he earned a speed figure of 93, incredibly impressive for a first start.
At any point in this race, had Zandon quit or retreated, it would have been understandable. Any horse would have had excuses for a loss after all of that trouble in such a short race, let alone a first time starter. That Zandon kept on going and pushed through at the end shows that he has a professional demeanor, and has been a courageous racehorse from the very beginning of his career.
Remsen Stakes (Grade II)
December 4th, 2021
Aqueduct
Finish: 2nd
Zandon, who was the favorite for this race, broke well and lay much closer to the pace in the early stages of this race, tracking the leaders in third. Longshots Fromanothamutha and Midnight Chrome set a relatively slow pace, taking a half mile in 52 seconds, and the field more or less processed in the same order until they hit the far turn.
The second choice Mo Donegal then came up alongside Zandon on the inside, and then Mr. Jefferson along the outside. Zandon took the lead at the head of the stretch, Mr. Jefferson faded, and Mo Donegal went wide to charge on the outside.
Mo Donegal appeared to be flying down the stretch, but Zandon, seeing the horse attempting to pass him, dug deep and fought back. The jockeys rode roughly, each trying to encourage his horse while throwing the other horse off of his game. In the end, Mo Donegal reached the finish line first by the barest nose, but even in defeat Zandon showed that he had the tenacity to keep coming at the winner. A steward’s inquiry into the rough riding in the stretch was conducted and the result was upheld. Both Zandon and Mo Donegal earned speed figures of 93, as well as a ton of early Derby hype.
Risen Star Stakes (Grade II)
February 19th, 2022
Fair Grounds
Finish: 3rd
In this race, his first start as a three-year-old, Zandon was the third betting choice behind favored Smile Happy and co-second-choices Epicenter and Pappacap. He once again broke poorly, having hopped at the start, and was last in the initial going. Epicenter went right to the lead and ran a sensible opening quarter, going in 23.79 seconds, with slight pressure from longshot Pioneer of Medina.
The half-mile went in 47.97 seconds, and at this point Zandon only had one horse beaten. Going into the far turn, however, Zandon made a huge move, and he entered the stretch wide but in a good racing position. Epicenter, having controlled the pace throughout, came home an easy winner, and Smile Happy edged Zandon late for the place. Once again, Zandon earned a 93-speed figure.
This year’s edition of the Risen Star Stakes has proven to be a key race in the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Epicenter went on to win the Louisiana Derby (Grade II); Zandon and Smile Happy would run 1-2 in the Blue Grass Stakes; Tawny Port (5th) would go on to run second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Grade III) and is expected to be a top choice in the final Kentucky Derby prep on the calendar, the Lexington Stakes (Grade III); and Slow Down Andy (6th) took the Sunland Park Derby (Grade III). While Zandon did not win, the subsequent performances of his competition certainly flattered him.
Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I)
April 9th, 2022
Keeneland
Finish: 1st
Zandon’s final Kentucky Derby prep saw him go off as the second betting choice, the favorite once again being Smile Happy. He broke well and was running easily until the half-mile pole, at which point he was shuffled back in the field to last. He was bumped and squeezed by rivals Rattle and Roll and Commandperformance as Emmanuel set a fairly slow pace, with the half-mile time being 48.35 seconds.
Zandon and jockey Flavien Prat then began to weave through traffic, finding the smallest of openings and showing a good amount of mental fortitude and agility. Coming down the stretch, Smile Happy took the lead from Emmanuel, but Zandon blew by him on the outside. He reached his rivals at the eighth pole and drew away, winning by a comfortable 2 ½ lengths and earning his first triple-digit speed figure, a 103.
Other Key Factors
Breeding
Zandon is by Upstart, whose graded stakes wins came at age three in the Holy Bull Stakes (Grade III) and at age four in the Razorback Handicap (Grade III), both at 1 1/16 miles. He had several graded-stakes placings at 1 ⅛ miles, but his only tries at 1 ¼ miles were a fourth in the Travers Stakes (Grade I) and a dismal last of 18 in the Kentucky Derby.
However, two of Upstart’s progeny (keeping in mind that his eldest offspring are only four years old) have already won graded stakes at 1 ⅛ miles: Zandon, of course, and Masqueparade, winner of the Ohio Derby (Grade III). Upstart also has the undefeated filly Kathleen O, who looks to be one of the Kentucky Oaks favorites off of a sparkling win in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.
Trainer
Zandon’s trainer, Chad Brown, is a four-time Eclipse Award winner. He won the Preakness Stakes (Grade I) with Cloud Computing in 2017, and came back the next year to place in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes (Grade I) with Good Magic and Gronkowski.
However, the vast majority of Brown’s success as a trainer has come from grass horses such as Bricks and Mortar, Uni, and Sistercharlie, all of whom won Eclipse Awards in their respective turf divisions. You can check how Zandon places in the odds here: twinspires.com/kentuckyderby/odds
Overall, though, while his breeding may suggest distance problems, and his trainer may have more experience with grass horses, Zandon has shown an amazing amount of talent, agility, and professionalism as a racehorse, and should be a well-deserved top choice at the Kentucky Derby.
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